Top 5 Autumn Budget predictions for HR & finance managers

This year, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer (Rachel Reeves) will deliver the Autumn Budget on Wednesday, November 26th.

HR and finance teams are (understandably) feeling anxious…especially since last year’s NI increase. Against a tough economic backdrop, speculation has been rampant. New, often contradictory rumours seem to pop up every day. Nobody knows what to believe.

The government seems to have noticed. The Chancellor even tried calming the markets with a pre-budget speech that was shockingly light on detail. Did it work? Are you feeling calm yet?

What has been announced?

Apart from the date and time of the Budget? Nothing.

Everything you’ve heard so far has been speculation and rumour. And several widely-reported rumours have already been debunked.

That means our predictions below are exactly that – predictions. We don’t have a crystal ball either. But there’s value in thinking about what might happen. (Plus it’s fun!)

This is not financial advice. We recommend HR and finance teams wait for official announcements and seek trusted financial advice before making decisions.

What’s likely to be announced?

There is widespread agreement that the Chancellor’s main objective is to raise more revenue. While the economy has often outperformed expectations in 2025, growth is set to slow, borrowing is on the rise, and living standards are still under pressure.

Michael McMahon, Professor of Economics at Oxford University says, “The one option we should avoid is another decade of under-investment in public services and infrastructure, since that only stores up bigger economic costs later.”

With little left to cut, we can be reasonably sure the government will be looking for ways to raise more money. So how will they do it?

Our top 5 Autumn Budget predictions
(ranked by plausibility)

1. Income tax changes – Most likely

Two weeks before the Budget, everyone was predicting a rise in income tax – it felt almost certain. But with less than two weeks to go, government sources said income tax rises were off the table.

The current consensus suggests income tax thresholds will remain frozen, likely until 2029. That means more people will be pulled into higher tax bands, increasing revenue for the Treasury.

It’s a tried and tested tactic, used by successive governments to raise more money without generating the bad press associated with tax rises. That’s why we think this is the most likely of all rumours to actually happen.

2. Cuts to pension tax relief – Quite likely

As it stands, HMRC “repays” the tax you would have paid on pension deposits, paying it directly into your pot.

For basic rate taxpayers, it’s automatic. For higher and additional rate taxpayers, it’s a little more complicated. Unless you’re enrolled in a salary sacrifice scheme, you’ll probably need to claim extra relief from HMRC yourself.

The government is rumoured to be considering two changes:

• They may replace the tiered approach with a “flat rate” – offering the same relief to all taxpayers, regardless of earnings. Some experts argue this would be a fairer system.
• OR they may cap the amount you can contribute to a pension tax-free – which would have a broadly similar effect.

3. National Insurance expansion – Maybe…

Some rumours suggest the Chancellor is considering expanding who pays National Insurance Contributions to include landlords and people over state pension age. This could raise money without having too much of an effect on “working people”. The risk? It might have “knock-on” effects for the housing market.

4. Property tax reform – Who knows?

Here’s a rumour that will matter most to home owners and those looking to get on the property ladder. It goes like this: the Chancellor may scrap stamp duty and replace it with a new tax on properties sold with a value over £500,000.

Stamp duty gets paid by the person buying the property, so this would flip things around, with sellers stumping the cost instead. This could be good news for first time buyers. But as with any change like this – sellers may just pass the cost along in the form of higher prices.

5. Cash ISA limits – 🤷

Rumours have been swirling about new limits to cash ISAs for months now. We’ve heard about a possible limit of £10,000 a year. And more recently a limit of £12,000 a year.

Maybe the persistence of this rumour suggests it will come to pass. Maybe not. As with everything else, we’ll only know for sure on the day.