John Healey will deliver his first Autumn Budget as Chancellor on October 28th. It’s the first Budget since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. Cost of living will be a major priority for the new PM, but what public services reform, growing workforce skills? For employers, will your National Insurance contributions go up again? What about the savings cap on pension salary sacrifice?
In the words of Grant Thornton, this year’s budget will contain “several genuinely unexpected announcements”. Here are 7 we think are most likely to impact your industry and business.
But first, if you’re around on the 29th at 11am, why not join us for our webinar on the Autumn Budget? Our experts will be live with the answers to all your questions, the morning after the budget drops.
While there’s still plenty of uncertainty around this Autumn Budget, some announcements are more predictable than others. From employment costs to workforce investment, there are clear signals about what Burnham’s government will be prioritising – and what businesses should be paying attention to.
These predictions are for information purposes only and should not be taken as financial or tax advice.
Likelihood: almost certain
From April 2029, a £2,000 cap on pension salary sacrifice savings is due to take effect. Even after the cap, the savings will still be worthwhile for most businesses – and right now, there’s lots of money on the table for those who want it. Use our free calculator to find out how much you and your employees are missing out on.
FYI: Payrolling of benefits will start sooner, from April 2027.
Likelihood: very likely
The freeze has already been extended to 2031, but KPMG expects Healey to add another year. A rise in the £12,570 personal allowance has been floated, but as employees lose more to tax so will pay rises lose their value.
Salary sacrifice benefits are a great way to stretch employee pay on everything from childcare, to holiday travel and EVs.
Likelihood: very likely
The Low Pay Commission estimates we’ll see a 3.7% rise in the National Living Wage from April 2027, so expect your pay floor to go up again.
Likelihood: very likely
The bank surcharge was cut from 8% to 3% in 2023 and Healey is looking at putting it back up, raising about £2bn a year. Alternative measures are also being considered, but unless you’re in the banking sector, this change is unlikely to affect you or your team.
Likelihood: likely
With cost-of-living being a day-one priority, Healey is reportedly looking at a £1bn package to support Britons with their energy costs. This will likely be reserved for low-earners,
but there are plenty of affordable ways to support your employees who don’t qualify.
Likelihood: possible
As part of the government’s push to get more young people into work, City AM reports Healey is planning to cut the cost of hiring under-25s. Retailers have asked for a rise in the employer NIC threshold from £5,000 to £6,000 – but this is far from certain.
Likelihood: possible
Andy Burnham has already announced plans to adjust the triple lock on pensions. The triple lock means the amount people get from their state pension will either increase by the rate of inflation, average earnings or 2.5% – whichever is highest.
Reports suggest that average earnings are being taken out of that calculation. We may get more details in the Budget, or we may have to wait a little longer to find out.
They’re informed guesses. Forecasts, not guarantees. The real picture will emerge on Wednesday the 28th of October – and we’ll be across it all, separating the broad strokes from the finer details for HR and finance leaders.
By the next morning, you’ll have a clear, comprehensive overview of the budget with all the important information in one place.
Here are some of the questions we’ll be answering on the day:
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